Trump

All that was missing was the official status, which arrived yesterday at 20:00 Italian time. President Trump has decided to withdraw America from the Treaty with Iran on the nuclear program and to reintroduce it, we will see how later, the sanctions regime. An important decision, which follows what was promised in the election campaign, which makes the Administration hawks happy, e, above all, Israelis and Saudis, who had been pressuring Trump for months to make him withdraw from the agreement, but which dissatisfied the European allies, starting with Italy. A decision, Then, which raises the big question of America's credibility with respect to the maintenance of signed commitments and which could have significant repercussions in the future and in other geopolitical arenas. But let's go step by step. This Administration has made a precise choice of field.
It sided with the Saudis and Israelis – now practically allies – to stop the growth of Iranian influence in the Middle East which occurred through the Syrian civil war, ma, before that, let's not forget it, as a result of the removal of Saddam and the disintegration of Sunni Iraq desired by the Americans themselves in 2003. Exiting the agreement, therefore, it could signal the American intention to move from the passive containment phase of Iran to the active containment phase, Perhaps, in "roll back", or recovery of “portions” of influence within the perimeter “Persian” progressively expanded by Tehran in recent years with a pragmatic indirect strategy. For sure, Trump's decision strengthens the radical faction of the Iranian regime, which has been pressing the Supreme Leader for months to react to the continuous Israeli attacks in Syria, to the detriment of the reformist component, grappling with a serious internal economic crisis that the new sanctions would only exacerbate. And then there are the consequences for transatlantic relations. After the climate agreements, tensions over duties and trade policies, the USA once again radically distances itself from Europe which, in this case, marches in unison stating that it wants to continue to respect the agreement with Iran and claiming its functioning and benefits. A clear difference in views which demonstrates how the United States is willing to let the transatlantic relationship slide into the background when interests considered to be of primary importance are at stake, and exclusive, relevance. After all, Trump's new National Security Strategy was clear on this, as well as in underlining the change in the international scenario towards a new era of competition between powers. Right, the powers “hostile” are identified in the document with China and Russia, but reading between the lines you can also see a veiled reference to Europe – in terms of economic-industrial competition – with respect to which the USA has lost its traditional instrument of influence/interference as a result of Brexit, read the UK. The battle over the sale of the F-35 to Germany, fought openly even in the last ILA show in Berlin, it's there to prove it. In the end, no less important, the plan of consequences for Italy. Rome and Tehran are linked by solid commercial relations, never interrupted even in the darkest years of Khomeinism, and that with the partial removal of the sanctions regime they had blossomed again, in different sectors: from the energy one, to that of infrastructure. Trump's decision affects them again.