The famous "markets" voted pro
“Tuesday evening, Wednesday and yesterday too. The large American funds have started massive purchases of Italian government bonds. The "buy" was initially triggered by the algorithms that read the breach of the downward threshold and activated the automatic operations.
Bridgewater, Aqr, Glg e Ahl I'm in the front row, but to swell the group, after the outposts, Of Citi e Jp Morgan, they started yesterday Blackrock, Pimco, Prudential e Dodge & Cox.
All funds ready to enter phase two of purchases: wait for volatility to stabilize downwards to plunder titles at discounted prices.
Who they work for, especially investment banks such as Citi and JP Morgan, it is not known.
They are in fact primary dealers who act on behalf of third parties.
American pension funds are certainly interested in our depreciated debt, but also the English ones. The first effect of the massive American entry was to balance yields and mitigate the trend of the spread on the German bund downwards.
Ben 4 billions of Bots on a basket of just over 5 Il Messaggero wrote yesterday that he would end up at Citi and JP Morgan. But what indicates that in addition to the price factor there is also a political signal is the continuation of the trend and even more so the intention to enter with long and medium-term positions.
Some observers suggest that among the buyers' names they crop up managers close to the republican world.
It's no coincidence that it's on the list Goldman Sachs does not appear, historian sympathetic to the democratic side. It's probably a coincidence, which however reflects the new positions of the Republican Party of the States.
a part, aligned with Donald Trump, would see Italy move further and further away from Germany, while the men of the party who still answer to the Bush family today would prefer that Rome remained in Berlin's wake. Or rather than our country maintained a complementary role to the German economy to prevent Germany from having economic repercussions.
In fact, Italy remains Angela Merkel's first commercial partner.
In this precise geopolitical moment, helping our country avoid a financial collapse with targeted purchases is even more of a sign of confidence (If the US believes in our debt why should other nations doubt it?).
Far be it from us to engage in financial fantasy. On the contrary just connect the dots to understand how the air has suddenly changed with a gust of support which must surely have reached Sergio Mattarella's rooms. Yesterday was, Indeed, also characterized by an open war between Washington on one side and Berlin with Brussels on the other.
A diplomatic as well as political bomb.
The Trump administration is now applying significant customs duties on imports of steel and aluminum from the EU, from Mexico and Canada. The United States has decided not to extend the temporary exemption granted to Europe two months ago from applying taxes of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium.
A defeat for the Old Continent for which EU President Jean Claude Juncker expressed himself with a rather weak exit: «Pure and simple protectionism, all we have to do is take countermeasures".
Angela Merkel spoke of "illegal tariffs" and the "risk of escalation" without specifying what Trump should expect.
Actually Berlin knows very well that on this specific front the EU has no weapons to grind just as you expect, a month has passed, the White House, probably by the voice of Wilbur Ross, the US Secretary of Commerce, will initiate parallel negotiations with the aim of review the entire commercial system between the two blocks.
Exactly what the US is doing with China That, after having felt the impact of the duties and the halt - albeit temporary - to the sales of Zte phones in America, he started a parallel table. Beijing yesterday implemented measures of the opposite sign in response to renewed American protectionism: the Council of State, chaired by Premier Li Keqiang, announced that duties on the import of a series of consumer goods will be cut from July 1st.
And what Zte was for China, it is for Germany Deutsche Bank. Practically simultaneously with the announcement of the duties aimed at Germany rather than France and Italy, the Federal Reserve has defined the conditions of the American activities of the Frankfurt institution as "problematic"..
The status "problematic conditions" - the lowest level expressed by the Fed - has influenced the choices of the credit institution in reducing risk taking in areas such as trading and lending. This status also means that the German group's decisions on the hiring and firing of top managers in the US must pass through the Fed.
A sort of commissionership that seems to have little motivation outside of political ones. The German bank's difficulties in the US go back over the years, but those who follow the dossier know that the foreign branch has been put in order and safe for some time. The stock on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange lost 7% reaching an all-time low of 9,16 euro.
If we consider that the White House has a series of "extraordinary" measures ready for also penalize Volkswagen and all German luxury cars, it now seems clear that the US does not want to give up the bone“.
In this revolutionary panorama for the Old continent, Donald Trump had no problem giving a clear signal in favor of Italy. Being perceived as a sort of lender of last resort confident in Italian government bonds gave a final boost and definitively favored the birth of the yellow-blue government.
No longer considered as an outcast entity throughout Europe but as a political bloc that in case of need could have a saint in the stars and stripes paradise.".
USA FOR ITALY (forward with judgment)
“Let's talk about the scenario of a US support for the line of international relations e, not secondarily, within the same eurozone, which would be manifested by the Italian government which has just taken the oath.
A knot of controversy that, notoriously, it is linked to the German supersurplus (…)
Trump's recall, in the face of such an acute asymmetry in trade, it is even to “national security“. Evidently, Trump conceives of them as problems of social destabilization, and consequently political, the increase in foreign debt (on expensive foreign products with high added value) and the related problem of underemployment in the corresponding US industrial sector: a vision that, actually, it has its own rational meaning(…)
The commercial "tension" between the USA and Germany would have its logical economic and geo-political reflection, in terms of interdependence of international commercial positions, and favor American for the loosening of the German grip on the Italian economy, exercised, as is known, through the jugular fiscal constraints of the eurozone.
Which would also favored the formation of the current government, as he was considered better equipped to obtain a different approach to German deflationary intransigence (the one whose, for the truth, Prodi spoke in the past, Visco and Padoan himself).
4. Other elements should also be added to these observations:
a) as well as US funds (about which, we reiterate, It is not clear who the "third parties" ordering the purchases are), on Italian public securities, to strengthen prices and placement prices, Poste Italiane and Cassa Depositi e Prestiti also took action.
But this aspect too, quite new (if you think back to how things went in the summer-autumn of 2011), qleast of all with this timing and this scope of volumes, can correspond to a sentiment triggered by the approval of the US Administration;
b) to the prospect of reintroduction of duties and the "ban" on luxury cars, the President of the EU Council Donald Tusk, using tones that Merkel was careful not to express, he declared:
“Looking at President Trump's latest decisions, one might even think: with friends like these who needs enemies? (!) But frankly we have to be grateful to him. Thanks to him we got rid of all illusions. You realize that if you need a hand you will only find it at the end of your own arm.".
5. Which makes it easy to question the appropriateness of having to entrust the "common position" to people who objectively involve the entire EU, Italy included, but they use tones that exacerbate the most relevant international relations and which appear appropriate only to that same German surplus position that, also according to Macron (Who, p.7), pagano all other eurozone states.
5.1. It is worth noting that, in contrast with absolute loyalty to the current rules of the eurozone which appears to be a constitutionalized precondition of legitimate appointment as minister of the Italian Republic, even George Soros (!), in a very recent speech in Paris, he admitted that the eurozone is governed by problematic and outdated rules and that now they incentivize "non-cooperativity" within the EU. So the treaties need to be revised allowing all countries to follow their own path of choice, including that of not being part of the single currency!
6. Even if you want to consider it nuanced the aforementioned gist of Soros' speech (including the recognition of the erroneous nature of the current EU approach to the problem of economic immigrants), it seems to us that every politically relevant "part" of the USA realizes that the eurozone, first of all, is a failed experiment and in need of profound reforms.
In short, maintaining it is certainly a traditional American interest: maintain it at any cost - in particular by destabilizing the entire continent and also its most important trading partners with mercantilist wage deflation -, it no longer seems reasonable to anyone.
7. And this explains it, in terms of shared geopolitical objective throughout the NATO area (to be clear), come a compromise of renewed European cooperation, which can only involve a profound revision of the mechanisms of the single currency in order to keep it alive but not in its current form, may it be well received by the USA, but with the awareness that Germany is a big problem that must be solved.
By hook or by crook (financially and commercially speaking).
Fractally speaking…
Steve Bannon: “I spoke for hours with Salvini to convince him to ally himself with the 5 position”
“You are the first to really be able to break the left-right paradigm. You can show that populism is the new organizing principle.". With these words the ideologist of American sovereignty, Stephen K. Bannon, he turned to Matteo Salvini, a few days after the elections, to convince him to ally himself with the 5 position. Bannon himself revealed it in an interview with the New York Times.
Bannon said he spoke for hours with the Northern League secretary and other members of the League. In the same interview, Bannon anticipated that other European countries will follow Italy's example. (…)
https://www.huffingtonpost.it/2018/06/01/steve-bannon-ho-parlato-per-ore-con-salvini-per-convincerlo-ad-allearsi-con-i-5-stelle_a_23448576/
Bannon said he spoke for hours with the Northern League secretary and other members of the League. In the same interview, Bannon anticipated that other European countries will follow Italy's example. (…)
https://www.huffingtonpost.it/2018/06/01/steve-bannon-ho-parlato-per-ore-con-salvini-per-convincerlo-ad-allearsi-con-i-5-stelle_a_23448576/
Source: https://www.maurizioblondet.it/laiutino-americano-al-governo-populista/
