“According to the temperature of the continuous and daily clash, the Conte government should fall immediately after the European elections. However, based on the general picture and the conveniences, it is really difficult to say. The problem is not only the act of the crisis but also and above all what will happen afterwards. A scenario that could scare the protagonists, i.e. M5S and Lega". The writer and political scientist Marcello Veneziani analyzes the situation of the majority in an interview with Affaritaliani.it, in light of increasingly strong tensions, and what might happen after 26 maggio.
“If this government falls – explains Veneziani – there won't just be early elections, but there could also be an executive led for example by Mario Draghi or another less relevant figure. The establishment and other political forces other than the League could seek a solution, and there are many, to try to cool the Italians' passion for Matteo Salvini. Even just for a limited period and for justified reasons, related to some emergency, I do not exclude at all that the numbers can be found in Parliament. And let's not forget that Draghi's mandate as president of the European Central Bank expires in October and he remains a reserve of the Republic who perhaps in the future will be able to aim for the Quirinale".
As for Sunday's elections 26 maggio, Veneziani believes that the League “can reach the quota of 30%. I don't think the expansion cycle can end abruptly, even if at this stage the most active party in the electoral campaign is that of the magistrates. The Northern League will stop its growth a bit, but I really don't believe in a trend reversal".
And the challenge for second place? “I think the M5S can maintain a few points more than the Democratic Party, thanks also to the breath of fresh air he received from the Judiciary and from this air of new Tangentopoli that we breathe". According to Veneziani “Forza Italia could reach the symbolic quota of 10%, although I expect an increase especially from Fratelli d'Italia. Meloni could take away some votes from the League in the name of a sovereignism that has not been touched by the concentric and judicial attack", conclude.