Emmanuel Macron will probably not be able to appease the yellow vests, given that the most intransigent wing has already said it will resume initiatives for the fifth day of mobilization. But in the meantime, the French president has obtained a first result: break through the roof of 3%. As the president of the National Assembly explained, Richard Ferrand, France "will probably increase the public" deficit "temporarily" to finance the measures announced by Macron in response to the yellow vests.
Ferrand, and Rtl, however, he assured that the deficit will return below 3% In the 2020. According to the president of the National Assembly, the increase in the deficit "will not be massive" and will in any case be "strictly temporary" because in 2020 “we will not have this cumulative effect of the measures and we will find a rate lower than 3%”.
A fundamental announcement, given that the game on the ceiling of the deficit concerns not only France but also Italy. And in fact it makes Macron his own, the standard bearer of Europeanism, one of many rebellious leaders within the European Union, who take sides in favor of exceeding the constraints imposed by Europe for the sole purpose of reaching out to their country. A choice therefore which will certainly have a notable impact on internal relations within Europe and which, as explained on this magazine, it could make Macron a curious and unexpected ally of Giuseppe Conte's government.
Italy and France would in fact be united in proposing to Brussels a maneuver that breaks the ceiling imposed by the EU. And it is clear that if the European Commission does not threaten France as it did with Italy, either Europe will lose any kind of credibility or it will simply have to back down and allow Italy to approve the maneuver as it stands without risk of sanctions. An idea that is already starting to circulate among the government majority.
And the yellow-green executive will probably put its foot down. As supported by the vice president of the Chamber Foreign Affairs Committee, Paolo Grimoldi, the exceeding of the deficit occurs "in total silence on the part of Brussels. And from Berlin. A silence that counts as silent assent, but which must necessarily represent a precedent, also for Italy. At this point I would like to see with what nerve the various Junkers or Moscovici would allow themselves to object to the numbers of our economic maneuver after what France is about to do, but I imagine that from now on they will keep quiet because if the exceptions apply to France then they also apply to Italy".
The French Prime Minister, Edourd Philippe, Meanwhile, today in parliament he will explain the measures announced yesterday evening by the president. Philippe will try to convince not so much the National Assembly, as much as the citizens, of the truthfulness and correctness of the measures announced in the speech to the nation at the Elysée. And above all it will have to say how the measures will be financed. The increase of 100 euros of minimum wages, tax relief on pensions and overtime, in theory, if they will be effective, will have a considerable weight on the state coffers. And French indebtedness is galloping.
According to Olivier Dussopt, Secretary of State for the Budget, the maneuvers put in place by Macron last night will have a cost "among the 8 and i 10 billions of euros, and we're trying to figure out how to finance it". And precisely for this reason, the French president will meet representatives of the banking sector today and tomorrow the leaders of the country's major companies. The goal of the Elysée, as explained yesterday by the president, is to involve them “in a collective effort”. But the accusation of being the "president of the rich" continues to hover throughout France. And many are now calling for general mobilization again.
The first reactions from Europe
Meanwhile, the first indications have arrived from Europe on what Brussels' reaction could be. Antonio Tajani, president of the european parliament, This is how he commented on the news of the possible breach of the deficit: “Italy has a public debt much higher than that of France, but France has a whole fiscal policy to reduce taxes on companies. It's not that everything Macron does is good, but the situation is completely different to the Italian one".
But the president of the European Parliament also wanted to state that Europe will not stand by and watch: “If we need to be strict with France, be as strict with France as we must be strict with Germany. As European Commissioner I opened infringement procedures and I always won even when Germany appealed to the Court of Justice. So the rules must be the same for everyone.".
Pierre Moscovici, EU Commissioner for Economy, stated that the Commission “will carefully monitor the impact of the announcements made by President” Macron on France's deficit. “We are in constant contact with the French authorities”, added Moscovici, who is participating in the plenary of the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
Confirmations in this sense also come from the spokesperson of the EU Commission, Margaritis Schinas: “There is a well-established procedure for evaluating the budget policies of member states, our position on France is known and the opinion on France's draft budget was published a short time ago. The impact will be assessed in the spring, when we publish our economic forecasts”.
Source: http://www.occhidellaguerra.it/francia-macron-gilet-gialli-deficit/