12 December 2018

Angelo Allegri
You may not like it but in the end it is always the markets that make the difference. On Monday evening Emmanuel Macron announced additional spending for 10 billion, that in 2019 they will weigh on France's state deficit for another 0,5%. Yesterday the financial world welcomed the new measures more with the air of a toast than of punishment: the Paris Stock Exchange was among the best in Europe together with Frankfurt (at the end of the day +1,35%); the spread between French and German government bonds has increased by quite a bit, beyond 5%, but it always remained below altitude 50. If the spread with Bunds is the measure of a country's perceived risk, Italy is considered a six times greater danger, given that the distance remains close to altitude 300.
This data alone would be enough to immediately illustrate the disparities between the two situations. Nevertheless, for the whole day, the statements of the representatives of the yellow-green government had the tone of those celebrating an unexpected gift. From Giorgetti to Di Maio, from Fraccaro to the president of the Chamber Budget Commission Claudio Borghi, they all expressed the same concept: if the French do not respect the deficit rule, we don't see why we have to do it.
Deputy Prime Minister Di Maio added a touch of victimhood that is well suited to the character: «Paris should not respect the parameters and therefore a France case will have to be opened, if the rules apply to everyone. But it's not what we expect.".

In reality this is exactly what will happen: alongside the procedure against Italy, a procedure will also be launched against Paris, given that with the new disbursements the French deficit could approach its quota 3,5% in relation to GDP. The German Manfred Weber talked about it, president of the EPP group in the European Parliament and Spitzenkandidat for the leadership of the European Commission: «The rules are binding for everyone», he said. This was confirmed by Vice President Valdis Dombvrovskis and Commissioner for Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici: «We will carefully follow the impact of the announcements made by President Macron on the deficit and its financing methods. And we are ready to act when the announcements turn into concrete actions".
But the focus on the formal aspects of the issue by representatives of the Italian government and the false comparison between Italy and France clearly highlight the short-sightedness (deliberate or involuntary) with which the Northern League and Grillo leaders addressed the entire problem of the budget law. Nobody, in Europe or elsewhere, he thinks France might blow up, dragging the economies of the old continent into the abyss. In several, starting with the International Monetary Fund, they are convinced that the Italian situation is one of the great unknowns weighing on the future. And this is it, as well as the violation of formal agreements, to justify Brussels' concern, in addition to that of thousands of investors around the world.
Pesa, as obvious, the eternal problem of debt. And even on this aspect the differences with Paris stand out: in those parts it is equal to 100% of GDP, also taking into account the measures announced by Macron; from us the 132% circa, provided that the numbers of the still non-existent maneuver do not turn out to be more fake than expected. But there is also a more imponderable element that has an impact, the theme of the direction of travel and the sense of an entire government action. The President of the European Parliament Antonio Tajani mentioned it yesterday. Italy is in bad shape, he said, because «confusion reigns supreme among us, It's not clear who's in charge.".
The social support measures put in place by Macron are part of a context of economic rationality. Not an institution, not a single research center has managed to find full meaning in the "people's maneuver". Of the people but above all of propaganda and clichés
Source: http://m.ilgiornale.it/news/2018/12/12/parigi-sara-perdonata-la-francia-non-e-litalia/1615126/