Why Germany covers up the Deutsche Bank scandal?
The silence of the Italian media on the case Deutsche Bank shows no signs of easing, but this appears to be a direct consequence of Berlin's moves to try to cover up the mountain of scandals that have involved its major credit giant and to prevent its bankruptcy under the weight of a real ocean of toxic derivatives, of the international scandals of which the case Danske Bank it represents only the latest confirmation of the billions of euros of losses caused by reckless management.
In recent weeks, the hypothesis of saving Deutsche Bank through a merger with Commerzbank has been gaining ground, another of the German credit giants, through a maneuver led by the German state, than with the 15% of the shares is the relative majority shareholder in the second institution. As reported Bloomberg, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has repeatedly raised the possibility of a merger, underlining the need for a stable credit system. E Deutsche Bank, this stability, it compromises it from the start.
On the day of 10 December the shares of the Frankfurt institute closed at 7,52 euro per share with a market capitalization of approximately 15,5 billions of euros (in the face of more 1500 billions in assets), subsequently reaching an all-time low 7,24 euro before rebounding, in the wake of news of the possible merger, above i 7,80 euro.
“Although marriages between the first and fourth German banks in terms of assets are quite frequent, In the 2018 the rumors have intensified”, underlines StartMag. “The business models of the two banks are complementary […] and both face a difficult period", commented Markus Kienle, deputy CEO of SdK, an association that brings together small traders. But there wouldn't be only positive aspects. “The restructuring costs – continues Kienle – could block the distribution of dividends for years and for this reason we believe that the disadvantages of a merger are currently greater than the advantages”.
Second The Truth, “This would be a scenario that is very distant from the line of thought that has animated European banking policy in recent years. Let's think about bail in, the resolution legislation for institutions in difficulty approved in 2014, introduced precisely in order to avoid state bailouts. But in the recent period we have witnessed the continuous multiplication of rules in the credit field. All new things that made it difficult, if not almost impossible, the life of credit institutions, especially the Italian ones. One above all, the morbid obsession of the Surveillance and its boss, Daniel Nouy, for impaired loans" which led to real harassment of institutions such as Monte dei Paschi, also recognized by the former Minister of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan, accompanied by a lax attitude towards the real "atomic bomb" represented by the toxic derivatives of which Deutsche Bank is full.
The Berlin Chancellery wants to complete the merger between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank as confidentially as possible. From here followed the German desire to nip in the bud any rumor concerning the operation and to reduce the media exposure of its important banking institutions to a minimum. Nonetheless, There is speculation about how such a merger could take place and the possible external investors involved, as expected, unleashed.
Several funds such as Cerberus Capital have purchased stakes in both institutions, while Handelsblatt reported the indiscretion that the royal family of Qatar, who already has the 6,1% through ownership of direct shares of Deutsche Bank , but it could almost go up 10% thanks to derivatives, would be interested in increasing investment in the bank.
At the same time, writes Milan Finance, Credit Suisse has started building simulation models on the economic and financial effects of a transaction merger: “The calculations show revenues for 35,3 billions of euros (25,8 billion via Deutsche Bank , 8,9 billion for Commerzbank ), an overall cost cutting of 7% a 26,52 billion euros and a pro forma net profit at 2020 Of 4,2 billion. It would have been of 3 billion (1,73 via Deutsche Bank , 1,27 via Commerzbank ) aggregating the two banks, without counting the benefits from savings. The Cet1 ratio”, the index that says with which resources the institution being evaluated is able to guarantee the loans granted to customers and the risks represented by impaired loans, “it would settle to 13,7% (13,6% di DB, 13,7% in Commerz), while the leverage (overall debt, includes the bank's bond issue, therefore the funding) post merger it would happen 1.846 billions of euros (1.315 billion DB, 531,13 billion Commerz)”.
The debt parameters are, in this context, the most worrying, even more than the renovation costs feared by Kienle. The imbalance between the debt component of Deutsche Bank and that of Commerzbank is indicative of the poor state of health of the former: and create a new extremely indebted giant at a time when global finance is moving towards one new crisis it could be due precisely to private debt, by the German state, a reckless move. And it is not even known what will become of the very heavy burden of poorly controlled derivatives which represent the greatest unknown of the Frankfurt bank.
source: http://www.occhidellaguerra.it/la-germania-cerca-insabbiare-caso-deutsche-bank/

