Of Marcello Foa

Source: Marcello Foa
For some years now, elections have been decided in the final sprint, in the last week, trusting in the moods of the so-called “liquid voter” that is, that part of the electorate that is determined to go to the polls but is not motivated by deep convictions. The other day, for example, in a bar in Milan I heard two young people , sitting next to me, who were undecided whether to vote for Salvini or Bonino. How is this possible? You say. The alternative is extreme and profoundly contradictory but plausible in that part of the electorate that does not constantly follow politics but develops judgments by listening to them here and there and that in the end, without admitting it publicly and least of all to himself, vote instinctively and subliminally, convinced by the personality of the political leader, more than his ideas, by the ability to recognize oneself in him or by just one aspect of his program.
Let's be clear: at this point the majority of Italians have already made up their minds and it is significant that the polls have been recording minimal fluctuations for weeks; but precisely because the outcome seems obvious, It will be precisely the liquid voters who will determine the great turning points of these elections, four in particular:
– The Movement 5 Stars will end above the 28%?
– The Democratic Party will close under the 20%
– The center-right will obtain an absolute or only a relative majority?
– Who will end up in the lead, the League or Forza Italia?
Difficult to make predictions, However, some trends seem clear to me. First of all: while in 2013 the only party that managed to bring thousands of Italians to the streets was the Movement, today Salvini's League also showed this ability, who in recent weeks has held very crowded rallies everywhere, until Saturday in Piazza Duomo in Milan, whose images (however censored on TV but it's not a surprise) they are impressive: the square, as we know, it's huge and was packed with people. The signal is unmistakable: Salvini benefits from unprecedented consensus, especially in the North but not only. No historic party today can boast its capacity for mobilization.
The Movement 5 Stelle is in full metamorphosis: from Grillo's vaffa to Di Maio's gray suits, from a disruptive movement to a party that wants to gain credibility with the institutions Italian, European ones and even once very hated London bankers. The rhetoric of change is the same, however, the reality of the programs and intentions is different. Most activists probably did not realize the evolution and their faith is so strong that it is impervious to scandal exploded in recent days. The Movement is running thanks to the trust of the "old" sympathizers, tomorrow it will be especially so for the new ones.
Extending your gaze, Indeed, it is not difficult to imagine a post-Forza Italia and post-Pd Italy. Let's say it: a Berlusconi to 15-17% represents an extraordinary but very short-term success, because Forza Italia is based on the call of the historic leader, but it has 81 years, and behind him there is emptiness. Just as the future of the Democratic Party is also empty: Renzi's devastation will leave deep traces and the Democratic Party risks doing the same (ugly) end of all European socialists, reduced to a force of circumstance, ADDITIONAL.
Replaced by whom? What if it was the Movement 5 Stars in the "Macronian" version? Surprised? You shouldn't. At this, In my opinion, Di Maio tip: a party that is no longer populist but progressive and transversal, also appreciated by the establishment. Very different from the original one (and perhaps for this reason Beppe Grillo moved away) but equally strong politically, precisely because it is capable of intercepting the disillusioned public of the moderate left. What is looming is a historic replacement.
Just as Salvini's plan is clear, whose maturation evolves towards a sovereignist and Italian but authoritative Party, aimed at occupying the entire center-right and therefore also absorbing a large part of the post-Berlusconi Forza Italia audience. Another historical turning point to which no one, a few years ago, he would have believed.
What a surprising Italy looms, no longer polarized between Forza Italia and Pd, but between the League and the Movement 5 position, between the new respectable sovereignist right and the new reassuring pro-European left. Those of 4 March they risk being, Really, historic elections.