Of Israel Shamir
Source: Comedonchisciotte
A few days ago, with an Ilyushin IL-62M transport plane over one hundred Russian soldiers and officers arrived in Caracas. Symbolically, they had stopped in Syria, as if they wanted to reiterate that Venezuela is the next country, after Syria, which must be saved from ruin and dismemberment. The military mission was led by the Chief of Staff, il generale Tonkoshkurov ("prickly", a name that would have made Vladimir Nabokov happy).“Don't even think about it, John Bolton had exclaimed, to intrude into the Western Hemisphere! Hands off Venezuela! It's our backyard!”The Russians didn't play along. Some time ago they had tried to object to US tanks being positioned in Estonia, a short distance from St. Petersburg, and all they got was a lecture that sovereignty means sovereignty, and that Estonia did not need to ask permission from the Russians to receive military assistance from the Americans. Now they have repeated this American sermon verbatim to John Bolton and his boss. First, get out of Syria, they added.
This is a new level in Russian-American relations, or we should rather say comparison.For a long time, the Russians had convinced themselves that their admiration for the United States was mutual, o, at least, which would one day be reciprocated. In any case, this period is over, they opened their eyes and finally realized America's implacable hostility. 'These Russians are really stupid, they only realized it now,' you might mutter. You only have to read the comments on the New York Times piece on Mueller's rehabilitation of Trump to realize thatHatred of Russia is the staple food of American elites, on a par with love for Israel. That's where we are. But the Russians have always been of the opposite tradition. The Russians had a soft spot for the great nation across the ocean in the time of the Tsars, in the days of the Soviet Union, e, even more, in the post-Soviet years. They liked America's amazing feats, its brave pioneers, the farmers, he jazz, Hollywood. They compared the American motto “Youth, go West” with their exploration of Siberia. They compared their fast-growing cities to Chicago. Khrushchev was impressed by the corn crops and invited his people to compete peacefully with America. The Western-educated Russian ruling classes (“intelligentsia”) they had sided with the United States during the Vietnam War and in various conflicts in the Middle East. This love for America was so deep-rooted that they didn't exist (practically) Russian/Soviet movies with American bad guys. That's right, there is no equivalent to the antagonists of Rambo or Igor of the horror classics.Americans in Russian films are good guys, with very few exceptions in low budget films.“We don't trust Russia, we never will. They will never be our friends… We will hit them all the time.”These memorable words by Nikki Haley had no response from the Russian side, and this feeling was unknown in Russia. Ora, probably,all this will change. The latest Russian action film, The Balkan Line, tells the story of a Russian commando operating in Bosnia and Kosovo against NATO allies, the Islamist organ traffickers of Kosovo, along the lines of the Turkish thriller, The Valley of the Wolves. It was presented at the right time, on the occasion of the anniversary of the bombing of Belgrade, the most traumatic event for post-Soviet Russians. When Clinton ordered the bombing of Serbia, ally and co-religionist of the Russians, despite Russian pleas and mediation, the Russians understood that their regime change would only cause ruin. Russian Prime Minister Primakov learned of Clinton's decision while flying to Washington and ordered his plane to make a U-turn over the Atlantic. After a few months, Putin had assumed the Russian presidency, and Russia had begun its course, more resolute, but still friendly towards America. However, the United States had insisted on treating Russia as a defeated state, like Iraq after Saddam or Japan in 1945. This had been too much. The Russians could have accepted being treated as a vassal, but an important vassal, a vassal to pay attention to and whose opinion you listen to. Supporting the Islamist insurgency in Chechnya or encouraging Georgian aggression was not the way a just ruler could treat his vassal. The bond was broken.
Until not long ago, we only had Putin's version of what went wrong, was featured in the film “The Interviews with Oliver Stone.” Now we also have the American version and, incredibly, it is no different from the real trend of facts. The American version of events had been presented by William J Burns, a veteran American diplomat and former ambassador to Moscow. It was summarized thus by Vladimir Golstein of Brown University: 1. Russia was expected to act as a junior partner, obedient of the United States.“America had thought that Moscow would get used to being our junior partner and that, even if reluctantly, would have accepted the expansion of NATO up to the border with Ukraine. Alas, President Bill Clinton's push for NATO's eastward expansion has hardened Russian resentment.”Surprise, surprise! 2. Russia expected a quid pro quo for its support for the United States after 9/11, ma“Putin has effectively misunderstood American interests and policies. The Bush administration had no desire (and he didn't see the reason) to make concessions in exchange for Russian partnership against al-Qaeda. He had very little desire to make major concessions to a declining power.”3. The Americans had not heeded the Russian warnings. Ambassador says Putin warned him to keep the fiery Georgian president from attacking Russian populations under his protection, but that warning had been ignored. 4. US-led regime change in Libya“it had made Putin nervous; reportedly, he had watched the macabre video of the death of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi several times, captured while hiding in a sewer and killed by Western-backed rebels.”Apparently, at that point Putin had finally realized that there was no way to survive, if he had not asserted the Russian position. After Russiagate, the enmity between the old adversaries has risen to unprecedented levels.
Non, I don't regret anything, and in particularI don't regret that Russian-American relations have gone from bad to worse. The world needs balance, and the Russians act as a counterweight to the heavy-handed Uncle Sam.The worst moment in recent history occurred around 1990, when Russia had practically ceased to exist as an important factor in international politics. Then, the United States had stormed Panama and Iraq, bombed Belgrade, created al Qaeda and destroyed its own working class. If that arrogant little black man, bus driver, Maduro, had tried to say “no” to Washington in the 1990s, he would have been kidnapped, arrested, tried for, let's say, child abuse or drug trafficking and imprisoned for thirty years. The then Russian president Yeltsin would not even have noticed, between one hangover and another, that Venezuela had returned to colonial rule.Luckily, now Russia and the United States barely speak to each other, and countries wishing to escape imperial diktat have a choice. Venezuela is in the crosshairs. President Maduro stressed that the visit of Russian military advisors had been organized for a long time. Although technically true, During the last month the Russian position has visibly changed. When the United States blocked Venezuelan bank accounts, Maduro had said he had transferred the accounts to Russia's GazPromBank. Russian oilmen were visibly upset by his revelation. I had spoken to an oil company executive who complained about Maduro's careless words. “Our bank will be hit by US sanctions and we will be ruined,” he said. “Because Maduro couldn't keep his mouth shut? We would handle his account, but in silence, without challenging the Americans.” Other top Moscow officials have said Venezuela is lost anyway, and it's better to forget about it. But the visit to Moscow by the Venezuelan vice president, Mrs. Delcy Rodriguez, had calmed the atmosphere. This elegant and dynamic lady is a convincing and first-rate speaker. She had been the center of attention in the press conference with Sergey Lavrov. With a few well-chosen words, he had unraveled the web of lies woven against his country. Despite the sanctions, Venezuela fares better than its neighbors Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras.In Venezuela there are six million Colombian economic and political refugees who have no desire to return to their country. They prefer to suffer in socialist Venezuela. Ora, as thousands of Central Americans are on their way to the Rio Grande, the United States should take care of them, instead of worrying about Venezuela. The current exodus occurs in the client states most dependent on Washington. We also know thatthe United States stole 31 billions of dollars of Venezuelan assets and data 1 (and) billion to that Mr. Nobody they appointed president of Venezuela.For a few days, Russia had hesitated. Supporters of the pro-American line in Moscow are quite powerful and had called for abandoning Caracas. They had reminded people of a grave and immediate danger:The United States can block Russian dollar-denominated assets and prohibit all dollar transactions by Russian companies. This type of war has already been implemented against North Korea and Iran, with devastating effects.The Russians fear such a move, for this reason they strengthen their gold reserves and sell their bonds and US treasuries.They expect something like this, sooner or later, happens but they prefer to postpone it for as long as possible. However, despite this threat, Putin has decided to support Maduro's Venezuela. Then we moved to the next level of hybrid warfare. The Venezuelans have moved the headquarters of their oil company to Moscow, and Russia, boldly, accepted them. The United States immediately responded witha cyber attack against Venezuelan power plants, causing an extensive blackout.This is probably the first large-scale cyber attack against enemy infrastructure. However, the destruction of Iranian centrifuges by the Stuxnet virus was limited in scope and did not interfere with the general economy. The Venezuelan electricity grid was recently updated and extensively modernized by the large international company ABB. When the update was finished, the company had stated in its press release that Venezuela now had the best and most advanced electrical equipment. However, it seems that sophisticated facilities are more vulnerable to cyber threats. Every regime change organized by Washington in Latin America (for example, the removal of Allende in Chile), usually included an attack on the power grid , ma, until now, the opponent had to physically get his hands dirty, sabotaging power plants and transmission lines. Now they have learned how to do it from the outside, from Miami. Venezuelans noted that the first warning about their blackout had come from Marco Rubio:“Marco Rubio had announced hours before the blackout that “Venezuelans would experience the most severe food and fuel shortages,” revealing that he had known that, in the following hours, there would have been some sort of shock.”Moon of Alabama also accepts the cyberattack explanation, even if he then blurs the incident by remembering that “bad luck exists,” and that the United States has also suffered several blackouts. I asked a Russian expert on cyber warfare and he told me that a cyber attack on infrastructure is possible. He linked it to the US fight against Chinese telecom giant Huawei: is the only major manufacturer that does not provide backdoors for NSA spying operations. The Russians have decided to lend a hand to Venezuela. They sent IT experts, a military mission, they buy Venezuelan oil and break the American boycott of the Bolivarian republic. They also help Iran circumvent sanctions.
The Russians have few ambitions. They don't want to rule the world or even dominate their neighbors. They don't want to fight the Empire. They would be content to be left alone.But if pushed, and now they are being pushed, they will respond. In the Russian vision, even the most hostile American politicians will desist before the final clash. Otherwise, let it be so.
Israel Shamir(translated by Markus)