“Christ the King” has been supporting what you find in this article for some time. On this topic, conspiracy theories, apocalyptic and other catastrophisms are the result of ignorance, follia of mala fede. Even in our small and varied environment, where it often seems that whoever talks the loudest is right, even if it is not reasonable or documented. (n.d.r.)
Reporting of Federici Studies Center
The current situation of the Italian state commented by the Swiss economist Alfonso Tuor.
Italy is not on the brink of the abyss
This is not yet the beginning of a speculative attack against the grey-green Italian government guilty of challenging European rules on deficit and public debt. Rather, it seems to be the manifestation of financial markets supporting the threats from Brussels, to which are added the attacks from the international press and what should be the Italian opposition. All this appears aimed at ensuring that Rome reverses its spending plans for next year which should lead to a public deficit of 2,4% compared to GDP, incompatible with the objective of reducing a public debt that exceeds 130% of GDP. If it isn't the beginning of the spread war, however, it could be the prelude to it, with the rating agencies that depreciate Italy's creditworthiness and above all with the Eurogroup which initiates a procedure for infringement of the rules of the single currency.
Three elements militate against such a scenario. The first and most important is that the budget maneuver is what Italy needs. The second element is that a fundamental component is missing when starting a war against the Italian Government, an alternative to the current majority that can have the numbers in Parliament. So, and it is the third element, a rift between Rome and Brussels with financial markets in fibrillation would lead to a long and devastating euro crisis which would have serious consequences on a global level. But let's get into the merits of these three points.
The maneuver, splashed by the Conte Government, corresponds to Italy's needs. In fact, it is betting on an acceleration of economic growth and aims to defuse the social bomb represented by 6 millions of poor, by very high youth unemployment which leads many young Italians to choose the path of emigration, depriving the country of its best forces. In short, after years of austerity policies imposed by Brussels which have not at all reduced the Italian public debt which in the last five years has increased by 250 billions of euros, now the focus is on growth and reducing public debt thanks to the increase in tax revenue that it would cause. In fact, the yellow-green government supports citizenship income, to the increase in minimum pensions, to the reform of the pension law and the reduction of the tax burden on small entrepreneurs also on a public investment program of 18 billion which should also help relaunch an economy crippled by years of austerity. In short, overturns the European and international ideology of "tears and blood" politics to improve public finances and in its place focuses on growth to achieve debt and deficit reduction in the medium term. It's a challenge to play and one that could be successful, if - as the Conte Government promises - these measures are accompanied by civil justice reforms, of the bureaucratic apparatus, ecc. which slow down the growth of the Italian economy. Moreover, if we observe the differential in yields between Italian BTPs a 10 years and those to 2 years, which is maintained between 200 and i 300 basis points, the scenario of a relaunch of the recovery is supported. The success of this policy would represent a great setback for Brussels and all its supporters (economists and journalists) of unhappy degrowth.
The second element that leads us to believe that an agreement could be reached between Rome and Brussels and that the fibrillations of the financial markets will not be excessive is that there are no political alternatives to the yellow-green majority. So, given the firmness of Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini, a clash with Brussels would lead to a serious euro crisis, which no one in Europe wants, especially today on the eve of the European elections which will be held next May. A financial crisis in Italy would lead to a new euro crisis with destabilizing effects on a global level. Neither Europe nor the great financial men who rule the world can afford this scenario. So for the moment we are still in a war made up of skirmishes aimed at making the yellow-green government retreat and reaching a compromise, also because no one has an interest in starting a spread war since it would not be just Italy that would emerge the loser.
