The migrant routes they are changing. And this changes not only the Mediterranean but also l’Europe, with significant effects on the political prospects of the Old Continent.
The data arriving from international organizations e da Frontex they give a clear picture of how migratory flows from Africa and the Middle East towards Europe are orienting themselves. And it is essential to understand how the routes are being remodeled also to understand how the landing countries will orient themselves, old but also new.

Data provided by Frontex I am, in certain respects, unequivocal. In the 2018 a decrease of approximately 25% of illegal crossings of the external borders of the European Union, explains the agency. The number of immigrants who entered Europe illegally is estimated at around 150 thousand units: the lowest number in the last five years and with a decline of 92% compared to 2015, at the peak of the migration crisis.

Italy has closed the central Mediterranean route

The Frontex agency then points out an extremely relevant factor. In the report, it explains how the reduction is due to "the sharp drop in the number of migrants choosing the central Mediterranean route towards Italy. The number of irregular crossing detections on this route is dropped by 80% compared to 2017, to little more than 23mila“.

A confirmation of the fact that Italy and Libya have acted in the right direction: stopping the flow of irregular migrants means stopping trafficking which is organized by an extensive and violent criminal network. Governments dialogued effectively. And Italy, also thanks to the recent agreements with the Libyan factions, managed to extract some not so obvious guarantees.

Not everything is solved, since in southern Libya, where there is the large sorting center for migrants coming from Sahel, Italy still has problems. And the recent terrorist attacks as well as the insurgency of the Islamic State are signals that must keep our attention high: In the Fezzan, Rome still has a long way to go. But the agreements (always precarious) with the tribes and the presence of our men in the city of Ghat they are elements that help the success of Italian politics.

Western route boom

While immigration to Italy from Libya is slowing down visibly, the flow of migrants changes its routes. Again according to data provided by Frontex, the Spain has witnessed a real boom in illegal arrivals in its country this year. Only in 2018, the number of immigrants who entered illegally into Spanish territory has reached 57 thousand. And increase of 161,7% compared to 21.971 of the 2017. If you get to these, those in Ceuta and Melilla are added, you get to 64.298. While the migrant boats that reached the Balearics were 1.955 just last year.
The western Mediterranean route has thus become the route most used by migrants to reach Europe, with the Morocco to be the departure terminal of this route which largely collects people coming fromSub-Saharan Africa, while assisting, in recent times, to an increase in Moroccans and Algerians.

The Eastern Mediterranean route is reborn

On the other side of the Mediterranean, in the area between Cyprus, Türkiye and Greece, the situation appears to be evolving. The agreement between the European Union and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which to the tune of billions has closed the migratory taps (then exploiting for internal purposes the Syrian population that arrived in Türkiye and became the key to influencing northern Syria), works. But not as it should.
In the 2018, the number of irregulars intercepted while en route Eastern Mediterranean increased by almost a third, touching share 56 thousand. E, as explained by Frontex, the increase was mainly due to the growing number of refugees arriving in Greece crossing the land border with Turkey. In the Aegean, Instead, the situation appears identical to 2017.
On the eastern route, we then witness a doubling of arrivals to Cipro. Migrants arrive mainly from Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq. While from the land border between Türkiye and Greece, It is the Turks who mostly decide to enter Europe.

Routes change Europe

The changes in migratory routes lead to some reflections. Especially with the European elections approaching and with a series of political crises which could have as their theater the landing countries of the new immigration routes in the Mediterranean.
It is no mystery that the closure of borders and generally sovereignist ideas have a strong hold on the entire European population, regardless of the region of reference. Illegal immigration has been and continues to be one of the main points of the program League in Italy, which is the second government force. But it should not be forgotten that the right-wing parties are also on the rise in the rest of Mediterranean Europe. And the increase in the migratory flow can significantly impact the continental political scenario.
It is no coincidence that Spain is witnessing theincrease in consensus for Vox, sovereignist party which has among the points of its agenda that of an almost hermetic closure of the Iberian borders. On the contrary, il boom in Andalusia, historically socialist region but which has become the object of continuous landings of migrants, especially around Cadiz, it is indicative of how the Spanish electorate may orient itself. And the same goes for the Partido Popular's choice to designate Pablo Casado come leader, since one of his first acts was to travel to Ceuta.

On the other side, in the eastern Mediterranean, Greece is witnessing a strong government crisis Alexis Tsipras. The polls confirm this the fall of consensus for Tsipras. Syriza, the party of the Greek prime minister, is given about ten percentage points below the first opposition party: Neo Democracy. And the migrant reception system, in which Europe is missing, it is definitely collapsing. A problem that has also stabilized the consensus for the ultra-right formation of Golden Dawn, stable between l 7 and 8%. And now, the European elections they get closer.
source – http://www.occhidellaguerra.it/italia-migranti-rotte-europa/