THE OPINION
Of Giulio Ginnetti
A few days after the Western missile raid in Syria, it appears increasingly clear that it has not undermined the agreement between Trump and Putin to manage the spheres of influence in the troubled Middle Eastern country. What Russia and the United States have in common is the need to reaffirm their primacy on the international level, eroded in recent decades, but to do so in a way that manages differences, according to the agreement signed at the G20 in Hamburg, in July 2017.
Each of the two powers follows its own "national interests". The synthesis National Defense Strategy 2018 signed by US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, makes it clear that the primary national security concern of the United States is no longer terrorism, but the strategic competition between states. And between Russia and China, the two main actors, with the United States, on international theatre, Trump considers China his most formidable opponent and is seeking an agreement with Putin, to prevent the formation of an anti-American Russian-Chinese alliance.
The target of the raid, which was limited to a spectacular surgical operation, it was therefore not about overthrowing the Assad regime, protected by Moscow, but to strengthen the image of the United States. Trump, convinced French President Macron and British Prime Minister May to carry out a demonstration, without causing damage to Russian forces, obtaining in exchange Moscow's non-interference.
He looks at it The Truth of the 17 analyst Carlo Pelanda in April, writing that «the allied military action must be seen as a test of convergence to define not only the borders between the respective areas of influence, but also the type of reciprocal behaviors to stabilize relationships». «Since Syrians use gases daily (chlorine) to flush out resistance in urban areas where reconquest with house-to-house fighting would cost too much – Pelanda continues – it was easy to mount a “just war” case to demonstrate the new US determination to resort to arms. In summary, the American strategy is to recreate its global sphere of influence by imitating the Russian one and destabilizing the Chinese one by resorting more to the stick. Moscow has neither the possibility nor the interest - also because it weakens the Chinese Eurasian project viewed with fear by Russia - to counter this strategy, provided they can maintain their sphere of influence».
The success of a demonstration, however, is linked to its media effect and, in this case, it doesn't seem like that was all that flattering to Trump. Among the unexpected results was, for example, that of producing a strong crack in the Italian centre-right, which will not be easy to put back together.
Behind this dangerous game, on the other hand, we can glimpse the real Middle Eastern conflict, which is the one between Iran and Israel, with Turkey playing into Iran's hands while paradoxically remaining a member of NATO. Nor can it be ruled out that Trump's policy will lead, against his intentions, precisely to strengthen Russia's alliance with China that the United States fears, but which was recently advocated by Yang Jin, researcher from the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences in an interview with Global Times, semi-official voice of the Chinese Communist Party, where he explains that the simultaneous American pressure on the two countries is pushing them to support each other.
It should also be noted that the division between Russian and American zones of influence could extend from the Middle East to Europe, splitting the Union's foreign policy, between Atlanticist governments and pro-Russian governments. But Trump is more pro-Putin and Putin more pro-Trump than pro-Putin and anti-American Europeans might imagine.. Finally, the fact remains that geopolitics offers us partial and limited elements to understand reality.
The real cause of wars and political disorder lies in the abandonment of natural law as a rule of behavior between nations. All warlike and diplomatic maneuvers that delude themselves into ensuring international peace without basing it on the religious and moral principles that regulate coexistence between peoples are doomed to failure.
Source: https://www.corrispondenzaromana.it/trump-e-putin-daccordo-sullattacco-in-siria/