The next European vote is highly anticipated because it could represent an important step towards a reorientation of the European integration project and could determine the definite advance of the majority forces in Italy - Lega and M5S - and a further downsizing of the more traditional parties, that is, Pd and Forza Italia
Which political vision will dominate the old continent: sovereignists vs pro-Europeans? How the next EU Parliament will be formed? Who will rule in Europe? To talk about it, Sputnik Italia reached Raffaele Marchetti, Professor of International Relations at LUISS Giudo Carli.
— Professor, You are satisfied with how the electoral campaign for the European elections is going 2019? In your opinion, how this electoral appointment could be different from previous ones?

— For now there is still almost no type of discussion on the specific merits of the European elections. We are in the election campaign but we are discussing European politics very little. To be satisfied, I would like to see a much more in-depth and accurate debate on European issues and this is not yet present.

These European elections could be an important moment in the history of European integration politics. The beginning of the break occurred in 2014. The last European elections were the elections in which for the first time, while the socialist-popular bloc maintained its majority, he saw himself rivaled by a populist bloc, anti-establishment or with anti-European streaks. In the 2014 these were small warnings, after four years these signals have become increasingly louder. And we have seen it in all the national elections. In many European countries there are very strong anti-European minorities and sometimes these minorities are even in government. And so, I expect that the European Parliament will have a very different appearance from what we are used to. Traditionally throughout the decades of European integration there has always been a large bloc of Euroenthusiasts made up of socialists and conservatives, when one or the other drove or sometimes together, making a grand coalition.— But according to the latest polls for the first time in the history of the Union, The People's Party and the European Socialist Party together will not have a majority in Strasbourg? This means that the wind is about to change in Europe too?

— E’ it is clear that the trend is increasing but the wind will not change yet. Because these parties could have a majority on their own, as they had it in this last legislature or they may not be self-sufficient, creating a grand coalition and will therefore have to request the support of a third ally. Polls say that the Socialists and People's Party will not have a majority, but it is also true that no one else will be able to have the majority, because the oppositions are still divided between right and left, so it is difficult to imagine that they would get together.— Il Movement 5 place it will run in the European elections in May in a formal alliance with the Croatian anti-eviction party Zivi Zid, with the Poles of Kukiz 15, the Finns of Liike Nyt and the Greeks of Akkel. They remain outside the group, at least for now, the yellow vests. How do you evaluate this choice by Di Maio?

— The European positioning of 5 Stars is very fluid, so I wouldn't take this as a definitive positioning. They have been changing allies for many years now, who seek banks and then retreat back. I would say that it is not a party with a strong political connotation, he struggles a lot to join a political group in the European Parliament. These are allies they have found, minor allies, however their strategic choice is not to position themselves on the right, not the sinister one. And this creates a problem at the European Parliament level because they are forced to make a decision, which for example they do not have to do at the national level. Their alliance with the right-wing party like the League is only a tactical alliance based on the government contract, instead for the European elections there is talk of a political alliance, and therefore has a very different value.— Marine Le Pen, historic leader of the French right, he reiterated his political alliance with this party and defines it as an alliance “lasting based on a strong friendship and great political coherence”. At the same time the vice-premier, League leader Matteo Salvini is focusing on the creation of the new Italian-Polish axis which, as he claims, could lead to the Union “a new balance, a new energy”. Do you think that Italy and Poland will truly be the heroes of this new European spring and will be able to replace the Franco-German axis?

— No, something like this is not conceivable. It is clear that any axis in Europe must necessarily pass through Germany and possibly France. There is no type of alliance that is an alternative to the centrality of Germany and therefore, if Italy wants to have some kind of influence in Europe, must necessarily find a connection first and foremost with Germany. There are no alternative majoritarian or strategic alliances at this time.

— About Germany, Claudio Borghi of the League returns to talk about Italy's exit from the European Union. “I think this opportunity is the last one. If following these elections there will be the usual 'mandarins’ led by Germany to guide economic policies, social and migratory, for the use and consumption of Germany and to our detriment, I'll say get out of it”. How would you comment on these words of the Northern League deputy?
— I honestly don't think they will carry out an electoral campaign to leave the European Union because this would not pay off in electoral terms, they would lose a lot of votes.
— League and Movement 5 stars are playing all their political cards hoping to win the elections to change the Commission. Who will command Europe? The current Junker and Tusk will really pack their bags, as announced by the leaders of the yellow-green government?
— E’ very difficult to make predictions but I expect there to be an even broader coalition which certainly includes popular and conservative groups and perhaps some other groups - liberals, verdi, other smaller groups, that are sufficient to create a majority that still remains “euro enthusiast”. I think that this time the Eurosceptics will remain in the minority. That is, before 2014 they didn't count for anything and since the last elections they have started to have weight, In the 2018 this weight will certainly increase but not enough to become a majority.
The author's opinion may not coincide with the position of the editorial staff.