by Paolo Becchi on Libero, 07/01/2019

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Voting is on Sunday in Abruzzo. A Region with almost one and a half million inhabitants, central from a geographical point of view but economically very linked to southern Italy. Voting in this Region is the first real electoral test after the political elections. And this explains why Centre-right, Center-left and the Five Star Movement give so much weight to these elections.
What is really at stake? What in particular drives Matteo Salvini to go to this Region seven times and now, already present in the area, to stop there until one day before the vote? What drives Berlusconi to also come to the Region to participate (today in Pescara) at an event and with Salvini and Meloni and take a photo together?
Let's start with this last question which is the simplest. It's obvious, Berlusconi wants to give the impression that nothing has changed, that the Center-Right is always the same as it used to be and that it wins when it is united. Parole. In reality, Berlusconi moved because if Forza Italia ends up below the threshold in these regional elections 10% this means that the process of exhaustion of his party is now irreversible. The polls tell him that he could even touch that threshold and that is why Berlusconi decided to participate in the closing of the electoral campaign. But this will eventually be just a small sign of life for his party. Salvini can aspire to take the League beyond 25% of consensus and therefore the comparison with Berlusconi no longer exists. Berlusconi is just trying to save face.
But if things are already in these terms, what drives Salvini to commit himself to a game that has already been effectively won? Perhaps he fears that the centre-left candidate, person of undoubted value, could jeopardize the victory of the centre-right? I do not believe, but I also don't think the center-right will win.
THE CANDIDATE
Right, that coalition will formally win, with a personal success for Meloni, why the candidate chosen as President, Senator Marco Marsilio, he is among the founders of Fratelli d'Italia, and as an Abruzzo native he accepted the task of returning to his Region and leading it. But the substantial political victory will be that of Salvini and a League that was in such bad shape in the previous regional elections in Abruzzo that it decided not to participate in the elections. In fact, in the event of victory, the League will govern the Region.
However, all this still does not explain such a massive deployment of forces: not just Salvini, but almost the entire League of "struggle and government" will rally around his leader. Why Salvini "forced" League parliamentarians from every region of Italy to come to Abruzzo to support him? And because he personally will beat Pescara in particular until the last minute of this electoral campaign?
THE PROGRAM
But it's obvious. A victory for the League in a Pescara where the M5S has great support would be a victory for the League over the M5S. Whatever it is, the M5S will come third, but it could still say that it is the first party, who loses because he has the courage to run alone. However, if the League alone were to overtake the M5S in votes then this would mean that it could also become the leading party in Italy. This is why these regional elections actually become important at a national level.
In the event of a landslide victory for Salvini on all fronts, Abruzzo will lead the way for the next regional elections in Sardinia and Basilicata and if the League is successful in these territories too, all the conditions will be created for its success in the European elections too. But only the assumptions, to win the European elections you would need a program. And this program does not yet exist.
source – https://paolobecchi.wordpress.com/2019/02/09/se-salvini-vince-in-abruzzo-nessuno-lo-ferma-piu/