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© AP PHOTO/ J. DAVID IS

Foreign policy after 4 March

But the perception of the state of things is now general. The right - which claims to have an advantage in consensus - is not at all sure of its position. Looms over the right-wing alliance “four-legged” around Berlusconi (for now not a candidate for prime minister) the threat of a rapid split between Forza Italia and Salvini's League. Which, despite the alliance, he presents himself in all television debates with very different positions from those of Berlusconi. Not neglecting to say, every three words, That, if he will take “just one more vote”, he will be the head of government. An alliance, so, which could end up in first place (but certainly without a parliamentary majority), but find themselves split immediately after the vote. And the worries don't end there. How to govern yourself (if this were the outcome)? With this question the headaches become excruciating. Everyone knows that the starting hypothesis was something new “pact of the Nazarene” between Forza Italia and Matteo Renzi, head of the Democratic Party. But now? Once again the polls show the PD in free fall. An alliance with Berlusconi alone would not have the numbers. With Berlusconi plus Salvini he would have neither the numbers nor any decency. For too great divergences of intentions on topics such as Europe and the economy. The uncertainty of the new coalition weighs heavily on the left of the PD “Free and United” (LEU), product of the split in Renzi's party. How many votes will it take away from him? Nobody can predict it, but it will be a hemorrhage of at least 5%. Deadly for the new Renzi-Berlusconi pact. E, in any case, LEU declares its total unavailability for an agreement with the right and, therefore she will not carry water to Renzi, who he just slammed the door in his face.

© REUTERS/ GIUSEPPE CACACE

Movement 5 place: no more sanctions, Russia strategic partner

Everyone, Then, fearing the judgment of the voters, they say they don't want to “mess up”, that is, they exclude alliances to which, actually, everyone thinks. And then? No majority emerges no matter which way you look at the mosaic. The M5S, for his part, he repeats that he will not make alliances with anyone. If he finished first, so, he would be alone. And then? At that time, in case of assignment (Surely”reckless”) That, in that case, the President of the Republic, could entrust him, he would go to Parliament waving his program and asking “convergences” in all directions. Being evident that no one “will converge”. although the M5S gives the impression of wanting to propose a government “anesthetized” to get out of an equally opposition “anesthetized”. But it is clear that “he doesn't want to win”, Why, if he won, he should immediately acknowledge that he does not have a majority. Someone puts forward the hypothesis, really adventurous, of an alliance between the League, — who abandons Berlusconi — and the Movement 5 position. Ma, apart from the numbers, which should become very different from what is expected, and which make such a government majority very hypothetical, there is the destiny of both. Such an alliance, taking into account the great differences in the composition of the electoral body of the two parties, it could negatively mark the fate of both. Too risky for both Salvini and Di Maio. And then it is evident that such an alliance (o “convergence”, as Di Maio says) It would last a few weeks at most. And then it would be all over again.

© SPUTNIK. MICHAEL KLIMENTYEV

Putin: “It doesn't even occur to us to interfere in the Italian elections”

LEU more 5 position? Unless there's a fantastic exploit (that no one now foresees) of both, the majority isn't even there in a dream. Other outsiders are not visible on the horizon, also because the media does not want troublemakers who stir up the waters of this swamp. And therefore they only let those who are already in Parliament speak. The cacophony is already at its peak even without the disruptors of the out-of-tune choir. How do we get out of it? Returning to the polls in October. That is the 4 March will be just a stage. We will therefore need a transitional government. Everyone is thinking of Gentiloni and we can swear that President Mattarella is thinking of him too. But before we get to the new elections in October, a new electoral law will be needed. The current one is clearly unconstitutional and everyone knows it. How to do it? For now, no one thinks about it: the current headaches are more than enough. Nervousness increases. Many interpret the Macerata shooting, — where an avowed fascist tried to shoot dead several black immigrants — as a stark sign of worsening social tension. Which is now a sum of tensions: from that of immigrants, to the economic one, to that of unemployment and widespread poverty, in addition to the absence of new jobs. And the deluge of promises produces intolerance and protest.
The author's opinion may not coincide with the position of the editorial staff.