Let's remove any doubts immediately, the European Union is not finished and it is in any case highly doubtful that it will be in the coming years. The contingencies, however, lead us to think that - however the next elections go - the EU as we know it is near its end.
In this historical moment we can in fact imagine the European institutions as a cumbersome bastion that divides two counter-trend and apparently belligerent forces, but once the divider collapsed they could easily find points in common. These two entities are the populist-sovereignists on the one hand and the Franco-German axis on the other, but why could two such different visions find one point of contact to the detriment of the current pro-European elite?
The question goes back a long way, more precisely from the fall of the Berlin Wall onwards. Once the Soviet bloc collapsed, the old European elites - to bring the former Eastern European states into Western orbit- they quickly assimilated the newly independent countries into continental institutions, without, however, having the strength to reform European architecture in any way federal. However, the economic growth of the nineties and early 2000s made us forget all the critical issues that had arisen for twenty years, until the economic crisis of 2007 brought all the knots back to comb at the same time.
At this point the European Union suddenly found itself in a situation that required rapid interventions on an almost daily basis, but with a mechanism behind it hyper bureaucratic made of unanimous resolutions, controls, counter-controls and commissions of inquiry. All aggravated by different economic needs from country to country and by a legislative system that is not yet harmonized.
The first years of the crisis were addressed following the needs of the majority "shareholders" of the Union, that is to say Francia e Germania. These measures led to the application of harmful and unpopular policies in Southern European countries, That, of reaction have seen the emergence of populist parties ( first on the left see Syriza in Greece or Podemos in Spain) and then sovereignists (see Salvini's League or Marine Le Pen's Front National) which have contaminated the political scenes of the whole of Europe, up to the spearhead of European populism, the Italian yellow-green government.
At the same time, these critical issues led to two other reactions of equal importance: the Eastern countries close to the sovereignists in terms of migration policy but economically dependent on Germany have formed the group of Visegrad. While Great Britain, never particularly enthusiastic about the European project, decided to leave the EU with Brexit (which despite the various vicissitudes will be there), thus creating further problems for the neoliberal pro-European establishment.
Let's now see how the Carolingian axis could find points in common with the rising sovereignist tide. Having clarified that European architecture is hostage to countless bureaucratic problems and cumbersome mechanisms, the two specters that haunt the continent could find an agreement on a multi-speed Europe.
In fact, this solution could satisfy the objectives of both political currents. With this system, populists could in fact withdraw from projects that they consider too harmful to national sovereignty, although it would be difficult to go and review the old treaties. At the same time, the projects carried out by France and Germany would no longer be stopped by the sovereignist troops - now increasingly numerous- which otherwise, given the systems of unanimity and qualified majorities, could create quite a few problems in the Commission and the European Council, also supported by a probable increase in MEPs.
(Of Pietro Ciapponi)
source – https://oltrelalinea.news/2019/04/01/la-fine-dellunione-europea/