Of Alastair Crooke

Source: Aurora site
General Mattis told the US Senate Armed Services Committee that he believes a military confrontation between Israel and Iran in Syria is increasingly likely: “I can see how it might start, but I'm not sure when or where“. This shouldn't be surprising. Anyone peeking through the membrane of the Western bubble, can see the main dynamics “bridging and strengthening” such that they inexorably close in on Israel. It becomes “inexorable”: not so much because the states of the Middle East desire war (they don't want it); but because Israel feels culturally forced to bind itself to President Trump and his team of extremists, placing itself as the first collaborator in the United States' "war" to repel China, Russia, Iran and make their commercial project an ineffective and weakened entity. The belligerent rhetoric of Pompeo and Bolton may seem like an intoxicating elixir to some Israelis; but the Middle East is simply not the place to collaborate in this new US hybrid "war" against the new emerging dynamics.
China, Russia and Iran are resolute, “inexorable”. Israel will fight against events and, In the end, being completely at odds with the Middle East, will try to hit him and weaken him (just like in the attacks in Syria), and will be affected in response. And we could see a big war. Whether you look at the bold, rossa, east-west band of the massive Chinese “Road and Corridor” that extends across Eurasia (Who); that the Russian vertical, Mackinderesque heart of energy producers (Who), stretching from the Arctic to the Middle East, supplying consumers east and west, one thing stands out clearly: Iran and the northern belt of the Middle East are at the center of both maps. Ma, to be clear, these can be articulated as commercial and energy projects, but they are also primarily political-cultural. These two visions, the Chinese and Russian maps, they are complementary. One highlights the influence of resources and the other the flows and concomitant economic fruitfulness that could derive from the flow of energy and manufactured goods along this corridor. In this northern band of the Middle East, Russia has diplomatic and security "weight"., and not the USA; and China has economic influence there, and not the USA. And 'no', this is not smoke generated by some imaginary 'vacuum' created by serial US failures in the Middle East. These are authentic dynamics of change at work.
For certain Westerners (and Israelis) boriosi, nothing significant appears there. We are told, and Politico for example, That: “…the new Cold War is not like the original Cold War, because it lacks the ideological dimension… the current tension between the United States and Russia is a Seinfeldian struggle over nothing: Putin has no ideological goal beyond the elevation of the Russian state, ruled by him and his clan; it does not seek adherents in the West, and therefore does not drive any major competition between two systems… After all, Putin does not preach world revolution, key doctrinal element of Soviet communism”. Why is the West "culturally blind" to the great changes underway? It is true that what is happening in the Middle East and Russia is not “ideology” in the coercive utopian sense, global, aimed at correcting human defects, coercively opposing and reforming humanity. But what exists, it is not "nothingness": it seems, because they precisely deny and are against the notion of a single global cultural order based on human rules, that these projects are invisible to the West. In the case of Israel, it's not surprising. Theodor Herzl, father of modern zionism, in his book The Jewish state, founding document of Zionism, he wrote: “For Europe, we the Jewish state will be part of the wall against Asia: we will serve as an outpost of Culture against Barbarism“. In short, Israel was specifically founded as a “utopia” of the European Enlightenment, and consequently and understandably the Israelis cannot imagine that others could culturally or technologically challenge the culture and science of the European Enlightenment. Here is Ehud Barak characterizing Israel as a “jungle city” while deprecating the jungle dwellers. At dinner, However, with Xi and the Chinese Communist Party, portrays himself as heir to the Chinese empire of 5000 years, driving out the predatory West and defining a Chinese identity fundamentally opposed to American modernity. The world that Xi imagines is incompatible with the priorities of Washington and therefore of Israel (on the current course). Russia also tries to define a culturally Russian "way of being"., in his own way, without imitating Western European models, but rather aiming at the opposite cultural and moral pole. Iran and Syria (and maybe even Iraq) they no longer look to the Western political or moral model, emulating or esteeming him. The point is that in the northern part of the Middle East at least (including Iraq), the "Wahhabi throat-slayers" that the Western secret services, Israelis and Saudis have armed against Assad are not just discredited, but they are hated (by the Sunnis as much as the others). The slow detonation of the "coup de grace" to these policies is emerging (still persecuted by the United States who protect ISIS on the border between Syria and Iraq). This region has escaped Western influence. The Russia-China-Iran axis is already the decisive power in the area, also in the Gulf. And Iran will be an important player. The West has brought Russia and Iran closer strategically and militarily, and for Beijing, Iran is absolutely crucial for the Vai and the Corridor. As Pepe Escobar observes: “Faithful to the evolving integration map of Eurasia, Russia and China are at the forefront of support for Iran. China is Iran's main trading partner, especially due to energy imports. From your side, Iran is a major food importer. Russia wants to cover this front… Chinese companies develop huge Yadavaran and Northern Azadegan oil fields. La China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) acquired the shareholding of 30% of the South Pars development project, the largest natural gas field in the world. An agreement from 3 billion dollars improves Iranian oil refineries, including a contract between Sinopec and National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to expand the old Abadan refinery“.
In short, there are powerful forces arising in the Middle East that are no longer in tune with Western “priorities”. (nor particularly favorable to Israeli hegemony, which they consider destabilizing). These forces are already powerful and look set to become even more so. But the USA, under Trump's MAGA vision, declared these emerging forces “revisionist powers” ​​or “rogue states”, and the US leadership considers them “threats” in its “forever war”. It is an open question whether the US will find the means to approach these emerging forces, or they will come into conflict. This is the “question” of our era. In the case of the United States, if a conflict results, it could remain hybrid; but for Israel, this option is unlikely: can only move on to “direct” conflicts. But what makes the Israeli-Iranian conflict perhaps imminent is another important change, which would potentially change Israel's position in the Middle East. The region does not just change in a way that is progressively incompatible with Washington's "priorities"., but the one quality that seemed to separate the West, making it “exceptional”, it was technology, which now appears to be slipping away. The US dispute with China is essentially about this issue: Trump says China 'stole' US technology (along with jobs). Some technologies may have been “blown”, but the reality is that jobs and technology were willingly exported to China to inflate the profits of US companies. In any case, China, Russia and Iran have made the technology their own, and now they surpass Western defense technology, or they already replace it. The United States will not be able to contain or repress China's technological innovation, or the technological revolution of Russian defense. So, if Israel looks to the neighborhood, perceives the United States gradually disengaging from the Middle East and “revisionist” and “rogue” powers increasingly present; “a major strategic failure with far-reaching implications“, said leading Israeli security expert Ehud Yaari, and he knows that the technological “lead” of Western defense goes away like sand through Western fingers.
No wonder the Israeli right claims that Israel's situation, his ability to respond to the new situation, it will get worse over time: that there will never be a more unreflective White House; nor an air superiority of Israel as it once was, with increasingly widespread and improved air defenses denying Israel the airspace it took for granted; Carpe Diem, seize the moment, these politicians urge, to find a pretext for escalation and followed by the United States. But it's not a direct question: at the top of Israeli intelligence and security are cautious: Israel cannot sustain a conflict for more than six days (esteem of General Golan), particularly if it involves multiple fronts. Israel could repeat the experience of the Six Day War today (in which it destroyed the Egyptian air force in the first four hours)? It's not safe at all. Iran in Hezbollah have developed the asymmetric response to Israeli air power over the past twenty years, which they successfully experimented in Lebanon in the war of 2006. And today there are new missiles north of Israel; and it is certain that he will still dominate the heavens? It's doubtful.
At that time, where we are today? Secretary Pompeo visited Tel Aviv last week. It appears that he authorized Israel to use smaller bombs (GBU-39) against the Iranians 30 April, the ones Obama gave to Israel. He also appears to have supported Israel to unilaterally expand the “war” to any Iranians in Syria. Israel challenges Iran, Syria or Russia to respond to such provocations, believing they won't, at least until 12 maggio (when Trump decided on sanctions against Iran, once again). President Putin tries to control the war, but Pompeo's green light in Tel Aviv made him impatient. Military advisors are pushing to activate S-300 batteries against Israeli planes and missiles. And from 12 maggio, with Trump's decision... Well, Iran has already promised retaliation for the missile attack on T4 9 April, timing and method are yet to be decided. The prospect of war hangs in the balance: the Israeli right wants to seize the moment (and probably intends to annex the West Bank in the fog of war). The Israeli military (like their US counterparts) they are cautious, they are the ones who risk it. E Trump? Ah… internal pressures are growing. It must divide Congress (o, as he says, “Democrats will impeach him“). There will be few national electoral concessions now, waiting for the November electoral conveyor (when most of them will be behind him). Foreign policy is where the medium term can be won (or lost). Much is blocked by the balance of US domestic politics.Translation by Alessandro Lattanzio